Earlier this year, IDC reported that sales of smartphones have eclipsed PC sales. And according to a recent report by Canalys, Apple is on track to displace HP as the world’s largest PC vendor in the second half of 2012, if (and this is a big if) you include tablets as PCs. Developers meanwhile are following the consumer trends; Gartner suggested in a report this year that we’ve already passed a tipping point where the installed base of Windows applications in the enterprise is outnumbered by web-based or platform-neutral applications.
The evidence is mounting: we are indeed entering the post-PC era. The trend is attributed in part to Apple stealing market share of desktops, but Windows desktops still outnumber Macs almost 20 to 1. More important are the tectonic shifts brought by the tablets, smart phones, ubiquitous Internet connectivity and high bandwidth that enable cloud computing. This all begs the question:
How much business value will Windows desktops provide in 2012?
Engaged as I am in the business of delivering Windows desktops to business users, I consider this a very important question. Is it only a matter of time before enterprises deprecate the Microsoft platform en masse, and similarly regard VDI solutions as anachronistic throwbacks to the client/server-based 1990’s? And if so, how long before that happens?
The day may eventually come when Windows desktops can be put out to pasture, but that day is not on the near-term horizon. In fact, enterprises are deploying virtual desktops in ever-higher numbers, and analysts predict strong growth in the VDI market over the next few years.
Don’t jump to the conclusion that a proliferation of non-Windows mobile devices + developer migration away from native Windows apps = inevitable irrelevance for Microsoft, Windows and desktops in general. Consider the benefits that Windows desktops provide to enterprises apart from being an execution vehicle for native applications:
- Security and Compliance – Mobile Device Management is an up-and-coming market but it will be years before enterprises can lock down their smartphones and tablets the way Active Directory Group Policy lets you control a domain-joined Windows workstation. For Windows desktops there is a far more mature market for solutions that provide data leak protection, regulatory compliance, PKI, malware protection, auditing, etc.
- Identity Management – It’s easy to take all the single sign-on benefits for granted when you’re running a Windows desktop and accessing office printers, file servers and intranet web sites.
- Fast multi-tasking – Knowledge workers spend a lot of time switching quickly among many active applications and sharing data between them. I’m not just talking two or three apps here, I’m talking about multi-monitor, dozens of active windows, high-speed switching. Sharing data across multiple applications on a smartphone or tablet is painful by comparison.
- Precision document creation – Desktops continue to be the best form factor for creating and editing rich documents, due to 1) the speed and precision of mice & keyboards, and 2) the near-zero latency afforded when an application is operating on a locally stored document. Witness the horrible reviews that ChromeBook garnered when an early adopter tried to use web-based applications to edit documents.
Granted, Macintosh desktops are also an outstanding form factor for multi-tasking and document creation, but they still lack the enterprise management features that Microsoft provides for Windows. Also keep in mind the long tail constraint of applications: a full exit from Windows will require migrating ALL of your business critical apps, not simply “most” of them. As long as at least one of your mission-critical applications requires a Windows GUI, Windows desktops will be required.
Unquestionably, applications are evolving to become platform-neutral and consumers are choosing non-Windows devices for personal computing. But even in a world where no applications require Windows to run, the managed desktop workspace is still a must-have for every enterprise, and there are no other managed end-user desktop operating systems giving Microsoft a genuine challenge in the enterprise today. And desktop virtualization allows end users to reap the above-mentioned benefits, even from non-Windows consumer devices. So as much as I love my Mac, iPhone and iPad, I remain bullish on virtual desktops in 2012 and beyond.
Do you agree? What’s driving your business to embrace or reject Windows desktops next year?
